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A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers, Part 1
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed...
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A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers, Part 2
Have you ever lacked for information about America’s various debt burdens? Twenty-odd years ago, if you paid any attention to debt, you might have relied on original source data to stay current. But...
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You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall
“It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics.” —Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements In May, we queued up the b-side of a record describing America’s...
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“Watch This Picture” Chartbook
In “You Might Like to Watch This Picture as Asset Prices Fall,” we discussed a composite indicator called thin-air spending power (TSP). We also promised that the accompanying chartbook (the post that...
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TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966
In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending—namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power...
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U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast (Continued)
“If I can’t picture it, I can’t understand it.” —Attributed to Albert Einstein “In order to properly understand the big picture, everyone should fear becoming mentally clouded and obsessed with one...
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Where Is That Confounded Recession?
“Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?” Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why...
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